Publications
Our work develops probabilistic, computational, and data-driven methods for understanding and improving the resilience of infrastructure systems under extreme events.
For a complete and up-to-date publication record, see Google Scholar and ResearchGate.
9767298
Q9RAAAJI
1
apa
50
date
desc
year
170
https://disasterrisklab.berkeley.edu/wp-content/plugins/zotpress/
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Arora, P., & Ceferino, L. (2026). Feasibility of Energy Communities for Urban Resilience against Hurricanes. Natural Hazards Review, 27(4), 04026021. https://doi.org/10.1061/NHREFO.NHENG-2728
Arora, P., Ceferino, L., & Dobler, G. (2026). Satellite based inference for disaster induced power outages using daily nighttime light observations. Npj Natural Hazards. https://doi.org/10.1038/s44304-026-00270-z
Houng, S. E., Ceferino, L., & Abrahamson, N. (2026). Fast Propagation of Epistemic Uncertainty in Seismic Hazard via Adaptive Importance Sampling. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 116(4), 1709–1726. https://doi.org/10.1785/0120250205
Boldini, A., De Lellis, P., Imperatore, S., Das, R., Ceferino, L., Heitor, M., & Porfiri, M. (2026). Predicting the role of inequalities on human mobility patterns. PNAS Nexus, 5(1), pgaf407. https://doi.org/10.1093/pnasnexus/pgaf407
Negri, R., Xu, S., Dragomir, C. I., Figueira, I., Porfiri, M., & Ceferino, L. (2026). When Recovery Becomes Infeasible: A Markov Model of Housing Abandonment Risk in Flood‐Prone Areas. Earth’s Future, 14(8), e2025EF007958. https://doi.org/10.1029/2025EF007958
Ceferino, L., Yi, Y., Li, W., Merino, Y., Moya, L., Shoaf, K., & So, E. (2026). A Performance‐Based Earthquake Fatality Modeling Framework Using Collapse Volume Ratios. Earthquake Spectra, 42(2), e70057. https://doi.org/10.1002/esp4.70057
Yang, S., Ceferino, L., Zhang, Y., Gu, C., Guo, T., & Kondo, G. (2026). When agents learn to think: Large language model-enhanced agent-based modeling for crowd evacuation in disaster scenarios. Reliability Engineering & System Safety, 269, 112056. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ress.2025.112056
Espinoza, B., Moya, L., & Ceferino, L. (2026). Evaluating the Seismic Damage Dynamics of Buildings’ Vertical Growth in Lima, Peru. Earthquake Spectra, 42(1), e70012. https://doi.org/10.1002/esp4.70012
Zhang, Z., Li, Q., Sun, Q., & Ceferino, L. (2026). Using virtual reality to study human response to flood risk across controlled experiments. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 132, 105956. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105956
Davila, C., Estrada, M., Ceferino, L., Morales, J., Garcia, F., & Koshimura, S. (2025). Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment Based on Time and Space Dependent Rupture Analysis of the Central Peruvian Subduction Zone. Journal of Disaster Research, 20(6), 922–935. https://doi.org/10.20965/jdr.2025.p0922
Ceferino, L., Kukunoor, C., Zhao, J., Mao, D., Xu, X., Wu, J., & Zsarnóczay, A. (2025). Accessing acute care hospitals in the San Francisco Bay Area after a major hayward earthquake. Nature Communications, 16(1), 9328. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-64354-6
Mesta, C., Ceferino, L., Cremen, G., & Galasso, C. (2025). Investigating post-earthquake hospital transportation for casualties through agent-based modeling. Earthquake Spectra. https://doi.org/10.1177/87552930251328386
Houng, S. E., & Ceferino, L. (2025). Fast Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis Through Adaptive Importance Sampling. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 115(2), 646–663. https://doi.org/10.1785/0120240153
Negri, R., Ceferino, L., & Cremen, G. (2025). Prioritizing Urban Areas for the Deployment of Hyperlocal Flood Sensors Using Stakeholder Elicitation and Risk Analysis. Natural Hazards Review, 26(3). https://doi.org/10.1061/nhrefo.nheng-2280
Merino, Y., Ceferino, L., Pizarro, S., & De La Llera, J. C. (2024). Modeling hospital resources based on global epidemiology after earthquake-related disasters. Earthquake Spectra, 87552930241262788. https://doi.org/10.1177/87552930241262788
Ceferino, L., Merino, Y., Pizarro, S., Moya, L., & Ozturk, B. (2024). Placing engineering in the earthquake response and the survival chain. Nature Communications, 15(1), 4298. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-024-48624-3
Arora, P., & Ceferino, L. (2024). A Quasi-Binomial Regression Model for Hurricane-Induced Power Outages during Early Warning. ASCE-ASME Journal of Risk and Uncertainty in Engineering Systems, Part A: Civil Engineering, 10(2), 04024027. https://doi.org/10.1061/AJRUA6.RUENG-1215
Liu, C., Macedo, J., Kottke, A., & Ceferino, L. (2024). Impact of Ergodic and Nonergodic Ground Motion Estimation on the Earthquake Resilience of Shared Distributed Energy Resource Systems. ASCE-ASME Journal of Risk and Uncertainty in Engineering Systems, Part A: Civil Engineering, 10(1), 04023061. https://doi.org/10.1061/AJRUA6.RUENG-1163
Arora, P., & Ceferino, L. (2023). Probabilistic and machine learning methods for uncertainty quantification in power outage prediction due to extreme events. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 23(5), 1665–1683. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1665-2023
Ceferino, L., & Lin, N. (2023). Hurricane Risk of Solar Generation in the United States. Natural Hazards Review, 24(4), 04023029. https://doi.org/10.1061/NHREFO.NHENG-1764
Avraam, C., Ceferino, L., & Dvorkin, Y. (2023). Operational and economy-wide impacts of compound cyber-attacks and extreme weather events on electric power networks. Applied Energy, 349, 121577. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2023.121577
Alisjahbana, I., Ceferino, L., & Kiremidjian, A. (2023). Prioritized reconstruction of healthcare facilities after earthquakes based on recovery of emergency services. Risk Analysis, 43(9), 1763–1778. https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.14076
Ceferino, L., Lin, N., & Xi, D. (2023). Bayesian updating of solar panel fragility curves and implications of higher panel strength for solar generation resilience. Reliability Engineering & System Safety, 229, 108896. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ress.2022.108896
Ceferino, L., Lin, N., & Xi, D. (2022). Stochastic modeling of solar irradiance during hurricanes. Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment, 36(9), 2681–2693. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00477-021-02154-2
Hariri-Ardebili, M. A., Sattar, S., Johnson, K., Clavin, C., Fung, J., & Ceferino, L. (2022). A Perspective towards Multi-Hazard Resilient Systems: Natural Hazards and Pandemics. Sustainability, 14(8), 4508. https://doi.org/10.3390/su14084508
Ceferino, L., Galvez, P., Ampuero, J.-P., Kiremidjian, A., Deierlein, G., & Villegas-Lanza, J. C. (2021). Bayesian Parameter Estimation for Space and Time Interacting Earthquake Rupture Model Using Historical and Physics-Based Simulated Earthquake Catalogs. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 111(6), 3356–3373. https://doi.org/10.1785/0120210013
Patel, S., Ceferino, L., Liu, C., Kiremidjian, A., & Rajagopal, R. (2021). The disaster resilience value of shared rooftop solar systems in residential communities. Earthquake Spectra, 37(4), 2638–2661. https://doi.org/10.1177/87552930211020020
Ceferino, L., Mitrani-Reiser, J., Kiremidjian, A., Deierlein, G., & Bambarén, C. (2020). Effective plans for hospital system response to earthquake emergencies. Nature Communications, 11(1), 4325. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-18072-w
Ceferino, L., Kiremidjian, A., & Deierlein, G. (2020). Probabilistic space-and time-interaction modeling of mainshock earthquake rupture occurrence. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 110(5), 2498–2518. https://doi.org/10.1785/0120180220
Ceferino, L., Kiremidjian, A., & Deierlein, G. (2018). Regional Multiseverity Casualty Estimation Due to Building Damage following a Mw 8.8 Earthquake Scenario in Lima, Peru. Earthquake Spectra, 34(4), 1739–1761. https://doi.org/10.1193/080617EQS154M
Ceferino, L., Kiremidjian, A., & Deierlein, G. (2018). Probabilistic Model for Regional Multiseverity Casualty Estimation due to Building Damage Following an Earthquake. ASCE-ASME Journal of Risk and Uncertainty in Engineering Systems, Part A: Civil Engineering, 4(3), 04018023. https://doi.org/10.1061/AJRUA6.0000972
Markhvida, M., Ceferino, L., & Baker, J. W. (2018). Modeling spatially correlated spectral accelerations at multiple periods using principal component analysis and geostatistics. Earthquake Engineering & Structural Dynamics, 47(5), 1107–1123. https://doi.org/10.1002/eqe.3007
Lallemant, D., Burton, H., Ceferino, L., Bullock, Z., & Kiremidjian, A. (2017). A Framework and Case Study for Earthquake Vulnerability Assessment of Incrementally Expanding Buildings. Earthquake Spectra, 33(4), 1369–1384. https://doi.org/10.1193/011116EQS010M
Noh, H. Y., Kiremidjian, A., Ceferino, L., & So, E. (2017). Bayesian Updating of Earthquake Vulnerability Functions with Application to Mortality Rates. Earthquake Spectra, 33(3), 1173–1189. https://doi.org/10.1193/081216EQS133M
Zavala, C., Gibu, P., Lavado, L., Taira, J., Cardenas, L., & Ceferino, L. (2013). Cyclic Behavior of Low Ductility Walls Considering Perpendicular Action. Journal of Disaster Research, 8(2), 312–319. https://doi.org/10.20965/jdr.2013.p0312